Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center
The May 2025 count of milk cows by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agriculture Statistics Service (NASS) showed a 5,000-head increase from April to 9.445 million head, according to the Livestock Monitor newsletter from the Livestock Marketing Information Center. The herd count was revised from the estimate made one month earlier of 9.425 million head.
The modest gain of 5,000 head in May followed sizable (in revisions) jumps of 20,000 head in April and 24,000 head in March. A gain from December to January of 34,000 head tabulates to a 90,000-head increase in the dairy cow herd so far this year.
The last time the dairy herd expanded at this pace was in the last half of 2020. At that time, the expansion continued for another six months into 2021 with 50,000 more cows added to the herd. The current expansion is consistent with profitability for dairy producers in 2024, as income over feed cost analysis showed the best returns in over 10 years.
Most of the expansion in the milk cow herd so far this year, prior to May, had been in the High Plains, Idaho and South Dakota. The May report from NASS showed some interesting new developments.
Most notably, in the East, the New York dairy herd increased by 3,000 head in May with an upward 5,000-head revision in April. The New York dairy herd had been constant at 630,000 head since October 2022.
Michigan showed a 3,000-head increase in May, as did Kansas. Highlighting revisions to earlier months, the Kansas dairy herd increased by 9,000 head in April, by 6,000 head in March and is up 10% from the end of 2024. The South Dakota herd was up 5,000 head in March and 4,000 head in April.
At this point, there is no reason to doubt that milk producers are in expansion mode for at least the next year.
The forecast for milk production has been adjusted, with 2025 milk production expected to be up 1.3%, about a half-percent more than expected before. Milk production next year is forecast to be up 1.2%. The All-Milk price at the farm for 2025 is pegged at $22.00/cwt. versus the prior forecast of $22.50/cwt., and the 2026 forecast is adjusted down to about $21.25/cwt. from the earlier forecast of $22.25/cwt.
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