The weight of the current macroeconomic chaos may overwhelm cattle and beef markets and may completely alter the industry trajectory in the coming years.
Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University
Cattle market fundamentals have not changed. The industry faces ever tightening feeder cattle supplies that will eventually lead to decreased feedlot inventories and declining beef production. The question of heifer retention and herd rebuilding remain very uncertain as both weather and external factors dim producer expectations. Cattle prices peaked recently at record levels and will likely pull back, at least for some period of time. The remainder of the year is now very uncertain.
U.S. and global economies are being hit with a maelstrom of tariffs and political actions that will impact markets in innumerable ways, many of which will not be immediately apparent but will continue to grow in the coming weeks. Supply chains in the U.S. are immensely complex and virtually every market will be negatively impacted directly or indirectly by tariffs and disruptions in flows of goods. Trade disruptions are sucking value out of markets and the economy. International trade, fundamentally no different than any trade in the economy, increases total value as a result of the basic economic principles of specialization and comparative advantage. Gains from trade are the fundamental engine of economic growth. Massive trade disruption on the current scale will lead to increased product and input costs and sharply higher transactions costs in the short run. In the long run, permanently altered trade flows will lead to resource misallocation and lower total economic potential in the U.S. and globally.
Because of the current domestic supply situation, the cattle industry is very resilient compared to many other markets. However, the weight of macroeconomic chaos may overwhelm cattle and beef markets and may completely alter the industry trajectory in the coming years. The record high cattle prices we have already experienced should go even higher… But they may not.
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