LIVESTOCK & POULTRY:
Total red meat and poultry production for 2025 is raised on higher beef and chicken production forecasts, which is partially offset by lower pork and turkey production forecasts. The higher beef production forecast is due to heavier dressed weights more than offsetting lower slaughter. Pork production is lowered on a slower rate of slaughter in the first quarter, partially offset by heavier dressed weights. USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on March 27, providing a further indication of hog supplies for slaughter in the second half of the year. Broiler production is raised on improved returns and the latest placement and hatchery data. Turkey production is lowered on the latest hatchery data. Egg production is lowered due to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI)-related culling of the egg laying flock through early March that is expected to affect production through the first three quarters of 2025.
The beef export forecast for 2025 is raised, with increased production allowing for additional supplies in the second half of the year. Beef imports are raised on strong shipments during January and continued strong demand for lean processing beef. Pork exports are reduced on lower expected domestic supplies and increased global price competition. Broiler exports are reduced on the latest trade data and continued price competition from global exporters dampening U.S. shipments. Turkey exports are lowered on the lower expected domestic supplies.
Cattle price forecasts are lowered for the first half of 2025 based on recent prices. The second half is unchanged as demand for cattle is expected to remain strong. Hog price forecasts are lowered for the second and third quarters, based on recent prices and slightly weaker demand than previously expected. The broiler price forecast is lowered based on lower expected prices during the first half of the year. The 2025 turkey price is lowered on recent prices and weaker demand. Egg price forecasts are reduced on latest prices showing a downward turn, as market demand slows after several weeks of increasing prices in response to HPAI-related reductions in production.
CORN:
This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged relative to last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.35 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast 3.2 million tons higher to 1.496 billion. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, reduced trade, and smaller ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is higher as increases for India, Russia, and Ukraine are partly offset by declines for South Africa and Mexico. India is raised reflecting increases to both area and yield; the latest information from the government indicates greater planted area, while yield prospects are higher on exceptional kharif monsoon season rainfall. Russia is increased based on the latest data from Rosstat. Ukraine is raised based on updated harvest information. South Africa is reduced mostly reflecting lower area. Mexico is cut as lower winter corn yield expectations are partially offset by higher summer corn area.
WHEAT:
The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised on increased imports, up 10 million bushels to 140 million on a continued robust pace. By-class increases were made to Hard Red Spring (HRS) and Durum. Wheat exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 835 million, based on Census exports through January and expectations for sales and shipments for the remainder of the marketing year. By-class reductions were made to HRS, Soft Red Winter, and Durum. Projected 2024/25 ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 819 million, up 18 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $5.50 on NASS prices reported to date and price expectations for the remainder of the marketing year.
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