The Atlanta Fed's GDP forecast for the first quarter was just revised to show a contraction at a 1.5% annual rate. This would be the first quarterly contraction in the economy since the first quarter of 2022.
The forecast was slashed from an expansion at a 2.3% rate after the government reported a sharply higher trade deficit for January.
Imports have soared as businesses moved to get ahead of higher costs from proposed tariffs from the Trump administration. Increases in goods from overseas subtracts from GDP growth.
